Recent scholarship in the area of FTL applied to LBOs looks at the problem of hindsight bias
inherent in failed LBO litigation.
The hindsight bias
is the tendency to regard things that have occurred as having been relatively predictable and obvious.
The first level of hindsight bias
is memory distortion that involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment ("I said it would happen").
Unfortunately, despite the well-established problems associated with hindsight bias
, it is difficult for people to overcome such biases when judging risky behaviors.
should be addressed in the process of identifying potential strategies to prevent recurrence of an error or adverse event.
Mandel, Patently Non-Obvious: Empirical Demonstration That the Hindsight Bias
Renders Patent Decisions Irrational, 67 OHIO ST.
The result of this hindsight bias
is that the decision on whether the defendant took appropriate care to avoid the accident will always be biased against the defendant: the fact that the accident occurred apparently shows that he did not take sufficient care, whereby a debate on the objective question whether from an ex ante perspective the defendant took efficient care is not asked anymore: 'hindsight bias
Will lead juries making negligence determinations to find defendants liable more frequently than if cost-benefit analysis Were done correctly--that is, on ex ante basis.
risk of courts and patent examiners falling prey to hindsight bias
refers to the phenomenon in which human beings, once knowledgeable of the outcome of some situation, develop a sincere belief that they would have predicted the actual outcome.
is a potentially important source of problems for the elicitation of prior probabilities.
identified a long list, including the hindsight bias
, (25) the (flawed)
Our initial theorizing about the role of perceived outcome preventability as a determinant of guilt was done in the context of discussions about hindsight bias
(Fischhoff, 1975; Hawkins & Hastie, 1990).