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probability
(redirected from Probabilistic reasoning)

   Also found in: Medical, Financial, Encyclopedia, Wikipedia, Hutchinson 0.01 sec.
probability noun anticipation, appearance of truth, believability, chance, conceivability, credibility, expectation, fair chance, fair expectation, favorable chance, liability, liableness, likelihood, likeliness, odds, plausibility, possibility, presumption, promise, prospect, reasonable chance, reasonableness, tendency, veri similitudo, verisimilitude
See also: chance, expectation, likelihood, outlook, possibility, presumption, prospect, supposition

PROBABILITY. That which is likely to happen; that which is most consonant to reason; for example, there is a strong probability that a man of a good moral character, and who has heretofore been remarkable for truth, will, when examined as a witness under oath, tell the truth; and, on the contrary, that a man who has been guilty of perjury, will not, under the same circumstances, tell the truth; the former will, therefore, be entitled to credit, while the latter will not.



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My modest goal is to point out flaws in the probabilistic reasoning applied to evolution by the latter and show that, even in the absence of all the higher-level evolutionary mechanisms, mere random shuffling of molecules and their parts, when interp reted correctly, may lead to interesting results.
I opened my course Frauds, Hoaxes, and Pseudoscience by introducing two models of informal logic and probabilistic reasoning, those of Stephen Toulmin and Chaim Perelman.
 
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