As discussed previously, speculative efficiency simply requires that changes in the level of the series are not forecastable
In an informed market, therefore, current speculative prices will already reflect anticipated or forecastable
future changes in the underlying economic variables that are relevant to the formation of prices, and this leaves only the unanticipated or unforecastable changes in these variables as the sole source of fluctuations in speculative prices.
Perhaps the darkest forecastable
challenge for Canadians in the event of a climatic cataclysm is the question of food.
10) Depending on the chosen assumptions and methodology, 6 percent to 53 percent of the variance differential in the returns to postsecondary schooling relative to that of earlier schooling is not forecastable
by students at the time they decide whether to pursue postsecondary studies.
To our annual look ahead at the region's biggest economies, we've added eight key sectors for which forecastable
figures exist across most of the big markets.
27) Even if the strategy is not forecastable
and thus duplicable going forward, the possibility exists of front running, trading ahead of adviser transactions as they amass holdings over a period of time.
For example, the theory yields forecastable
variation in the size of the value/glamour differential, in volatility; and in the skewness of returns.
Second, although there is debate regarding the degree to which the deflation of 1929-33 was forecastable
at short horizons (see Dominguez et al.
But research has shown that over the longer-term, say over a ten-year forecast horizon, stock prices, whether expressed as PE ratios, dividend yields, or total returns may be to some degree forecastable
(Campbell and Shiller 1988).
Snyder's scenarios of the reliably forecastable
future serve as "reality checks" to distinguish the short-term fads in the business environment from the long-term realities, and to separate conventional thinking from strategic thinking.
If we lived in a world where "money" meant only "central bank liabilities" and its demand were perfectly forecastable
, price-level stability would be easy to accomplish, because the central bank has nearly perfect control over its own liabilities.
O'Riordon considers the challenge to Brussels is to make the required reduction in an orderly and forecastable