reckon

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One of them first succeeds in becoming the monarch's lover, but reckons without her sister's determination to achieve her grander ambition - to become queen.
But he reckons without Sam Dingle (James Hooton), who, thinking he is doing him a favour, conspires to torch it.
Katie agrees to Andy's demands for the sake of the stables - but reckons without the intervention of Rosemary, who is determined to destroy the business.