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This section provides an investigation on the long- and short-run dynamic of real premiums, including real losses, real GDP, and real interest rate as exogenous variables.
In Table 3, model closure is described by rendering exogenous variables in bold.
As with the House vote, several VECMs are estimated with similar sets of short-run exogenous variables to test for robustness in a limited sample.
3) The latter two variables, together with the oil price, are regarded as weakly exogenous variables.
35) is remarkably high, given the large number of observations (N = 84) and the fact that there is only one exogenous variable.
The key is to forecast the next month's average funds rate in a way that uses information from this month's discrete target change--which is precisely what the exogenous variable Z is designed to do.
The ceteris paribus condition also holds in this case since the other explanatory variables are all exogenous variables and both export prices were treated as predetermined variables.
In the first stage, instrumented (predicted) values for all endogenous variables are developed by regressing each endogenous variable on all of the exogenous variables in the system.
Although only an informal comparison, the standardized coefficient for the effect of poverty on the physical environment is larger than the coefficient of any exogenous variable predicting this construct.
The value of an exogenous variable generally depends upon a decision into which significant noneconomic factors intrude; for example, security and foreign policy considerations substantially influence the level of defense expenditures.
We are not confident that any of these recommendations will be realized in this decade, thus we conclude that, barring a dramatic change in the situation initiated by an exogenous variable, democratization will not progress in Egypt in this decade.