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We also aim to see whether moderations occurred in the growth rates of real consumption expenditures and prices.
Table 1 presents the measures of volatility in each time period and the tests for moderations.
Even with these relatively small annual samples, the moderations are easy to detect.
Both dates mark moderations, and the two changes are of comparable scale.
The third panel provides information on moderations in inflation.
When we examine the possible impact of these moderations on interest rates in the next section, we find that the means also matter.
We explore the implications of moderations in the quarterly data by dividing the sample in two: 1947:1-1983:4 and 1984:1-2006:3.
Although some p-values changed, the conclusions about moderations and changes in means both were unaffected by adopting these methods.
We next use these striking facts to look at the effects of moderations on interest rates.
Asset prices provide a perspective on the moderations.
The long spans of macroeconomic data necessary to study moderations and unconditional interest rates prior to 1950 are available only at annual frequency.
That is the qualitative, predicted link between moderations and interest rates.