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KEYWORDS: business cycle, wage cyclicality, Great Depression
Additional evidence confirming the high cyclicality of top incomes comes from verifying the out-of-sample forecasts made in Parker and Vissing-Jorgensen (2009) based on cyclicality estimates that excluded the recent recession.
In section II, using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we show that the incomes of low-education households are more cyclical than those of high-education households and that the greater cyclicality of the top 1 percent does not appear in the CPS before 1982.
However, in the public CPS data for the period since 1982, when one ranks by percentile in the income distribution, the top I percent have a higher cyclicality than even the lowest education group (those with less than a high school diploma).
For job stayers the cyclicality is measured by [beta].
Most of the existing evidence on the cyclicality of individual wages comes from studies that use individual level survey data: the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY).
Bils (1985) is the first study that examines the cyclicality of individual wages while separating the wages of job stayers from the wages of new hires.
Within each gender, overall employment cyclicality is expressed as an industry-employment-weighted average of industry-specific cyclicalities,
j] is the employment cyclicality of gender g in industry j.
The first term in the right-hand side of equation (4) (called the between-industry component) represents the amount of the gender gap in employment cyclicality explained by industry share gaps assuming that industry-specific cyclicalities are equal for both genders in all industries.
The evidence on this question for the Depression is unclear, although the evidence on wage cyclicality from the post-war period does not support MacKenzie's (2010) claims.
Business Cycle Models, Aggregation, and Real Wage Cyclicality.