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First, by threatening acquittees with punitive sanctions, the proposal will likely enhance medication compliance and thus reduce the likelihood that acquittees will recidivate.
Risk assessment determines sentencing based only on the probability that a criminal will recidivate.
In this context, a false positive is a person predicted to recidivate who is therefore incarcerated but, in reality, would have stayed crime-free.
Perhaps we could characterize the whole system as utilitarian with the added assumption that all violent acts produce criminals likely to recidivate.
Under the VCSC results, younger offenders are more likely to recidivate within a short timeframe.
The VCSC's approach, then, was to incarcerate those felons most likely to recidivate after their release from incarceration.
Not every crime is caught; adopting Virginia's objective of minimizing the number of crimes committed, the maximum likelihood estimate of the number of crimes an offender would have committed while unincarcerated is the inverse of the time until capture, (118) Thus, special emphasis must be given to those who recidivate rapidly.
Desistance can be incorporated by adding an additional parameter representing the binary outcome of whether or not an individual will recidivate.